2009.03.24. 11:11
Hungary's GDP "horror" scenario
Budapest, March 24 (MTI) - Hungarian economic think-tank Capital Economics forecasts a more severe downturn for the region's economies than the consensus of analysts, and reckons that Hungary's gross domestic product could shrink an eye-watering 7.5 percent in 2009, business daily Vilaggazdasag said on Tuesday.
Whereas the government officially forecasts a contraction of 3.5 percent this year, Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsany said at the weekend that his administration was preparing for a deeper recession.
Most analysts project a contraction of around 4.5 percent.
The pessimistic prognosis is based on worsening conditions in Germany, which is Hungary's main export market. One forecast has Germany's GDP falling by 6-7 percent.
The think-tank reckons that the Baltic economies are in for a recession of up to 15 percent of GDP while Ukraine's economy is expected to shrink by 10 percent. Slovakia's will slow by 2.5 percent, according to Capital Economics while Poland is likely to show a 3.5 percent contraction.
